An accurate count of the increasing casualties is exceedingly challenging due to the extensive devastation in Derna and the tumultuous political situation in the region. Global officials now express concerns that up to 20,000 people may have lost their lives in the torrents of water that swept through eastern Libya, a catastrophic toll that could have been largely prevented, as stated by authorities on Thursday.

As rescue teams in the ruined city of Derna conducted underwater and rubble searches, there were growing apprehensions about the possibility of decaying bodies triggering a deadly disease outbreak following this week’s flooding.

Given the extensive destruction and the chaotic political landscape in the region, an exact count of the rising death toll remains incredibly difficult. Bodies continue to wash up on the shore, and mass burials are being held. Torrential rainfall from the Mediterranean storm Daniel led to the collapse of two dams, unleashing waves exceeding 20 feet in the heart of Derna, a port city in eastern Libya.

The current confirmed death toll stands at 5,300, with an additional 10,000 individuals missing and over 7,000 injured, as reported by Osama Ali, spokesperson for the ambulance service, to NBC News. While the numbers have fluctuated depending on the source, all estimates place the toll in the thousands, with Derna’s mayor suggesting it could more than triple as search teams and survivors discover more bodies amid the ruins.

Mayor Abdel Moneim al-Ghaithi remarked, “The situation is very large and surprising for the city of Derna. We were not able to confront it with our capabilities that preceded the storm and the torrent,” in an interview with Sky News Arabia on Wednesday night. His office projected that the death toll could eventually reach 20,000, which is roughly a fifth of the city’s population, based on estimates of those residing in the areas that were swept away.

The United Nations’ weather and climate agency asserted that most of the deaths could have been averted if better warning systems had been in place. Petteri Taalas, the head of the World Meteorological Organization, stated that issuing warnings and executing evacuations could have prevented most of the human casualties. The agency had issued warnings 72 hours before the dam collapses, including communication with Libyan authorities and media announcements, which prompted the declaration of a state of emergency in the North African country.

A humanitarian crisis is also unfolding for survivors, with concerns rising about waterborne diseases affecting the area, particularly with rotting bodies still washing ashore. Elie Abouaoun, country director for Libya at the International Rescue Committee, emphasized the need for clean water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities to prevent further crises within this disaster.

According to the International Organization for Migration, around 30,000 people from Derna have been displaced. Satellite imagery vividly illustrates the extent of the destruction caused by the floods, with an estimated 25% of the city completely destroyed or washed away.

Rescue teams from neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, along with crews from Turkey, Italy, and other nations, have arrived to assist. However, their efforts are hindered by damaged roads and the disruption of power and communications in the city. Othman Abduljaleel, the health minister of the eastern Libyan government, mentioned that divers are searching the seawaters off the coast of Derna.

Following Islamic tradition, where bodies are buried promptly, more than 3,000 bodies have already been placed in mass graves. The hope of finding survivors has significantly diminished as an extensive cleanup and recovery operation begins.

The Tripoli Public Services Company has initiated the clearance of rubble in Derna’s once densely populated center, operating around the clock. Their staff is divided into three teams: one to remove rubble that may have entrapped victims, one to pump out stagnant standing water, and one to clear paths by removing fallen structures and cars swept away by the floods.

The formidable challenge of providing immediate aid and subsequently rebuilding Derna is complicated by the lasting impact of a decade of civil conflict, which has resulted in two rival governments governing eastern and western Libya.

Derna is under the control of the Libyan National Army, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter and headquartered in the eastern city of Tobruk. The rest of the country is governed by the Government of National Unity, based in the capital, Tripoli, in the west. This divide has impeded reconstruction efforts for years, although aid workers indicate that both sides are now engaged in dialogue.

“Both governments have reached out to the international community requesting services and help,” stated Tauhid Pasha of the International Organization for Migration during a BBC Radio interview on Wednesday night. “The Government of National Unity has extended its support to us and its request on behalf of the entire country, and they are also coordinating with the government in the east,” he added.